Next difficulty

[khal]

A new tool to view the estimated next difficulty :
http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

[khal]

Small update : estimated date of next block added (some days ago :p)

[JohnDoe]

Does this estimate get crazy after a difficulty update like bitcoinwatch or did a big miner jump ship to namecoin? Estimate says 11409 right now.

[Braden]

if you look at the increase in mh/s at the namecoin pool over the last week, a 3x increase might be a conservative estimate.

[khal]

Some new miners arrived 3 ou 4 days before the difficulty change. They have modified the difficulty factor by changing it from x1.10 to x1.30. Imagine what the difficulty would be if they started before ? That's exactly what is happening now.



ps : the estimate may get crazy too, but during 10mn. I haven't checked :p

[khal]

Update : http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
- bitcoin difficulty
- bitcoin/namecoin ratio

[JohnDoe]

Thanks, that's very useful.

[khal]

Are you interested by a "more precise" difficulty estimation ?

Current one takes into account the average speed from the last difficulty block. But, difficulty tends to increase (or decrease), and "instant" hashrate/difficulty can be used to calc a more precise difficulty by assuming instant hashrate will stay constant during the end of the round.

[khal]

I've updated the difficulty page (full rewrite) :
http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

- new algo to estimate next difficulties and ratio (namecoin will drop !)
- better look :p

[wizzard0]

I've updated the difficulty page (full rewrite) :
http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

- new algo to estimate next difficulties and ratio (namecoin will drop !)
- better look :p

Thanks for leaving _old.php! I'm pulling data to chart from it