Reply to topic  [ 4 posts ] 
Reminder: NMC prices depend on BTC prices 
Author Message

Posts: 15
Reply with quote
Post Reminder: NMC prices depend on BTC prices
In my opinion, looking at the difficulty ratio is not a good indicator of what price will be. When BTC prices go down, NMC prices should go up, which would then subsequently affect difficulty. Also, a simple difficulty ratio fails to take into account that supply of NMC is much less than the supply of BTC. Since BTC prices are falling, I've bought a whole bunch of NMC expecting them to rise. So when BTC starts rising again, that might be a good time to consider selling some. Thoughts?


Tue Jul 05, 2011 3:31 pm
Profile

Posts: 94
os: linux
Reply with quote
Post Re: Reminder: NMC prices depend on BTC prices
Anth0n wrote:
Since BTC prices are falling, I've bought a whole bunch of NMC expecting them to rise. So when BTC starts rising again, that might be a good time to consider selling some. Thoughts?


Looks like NMC going up when BTC goes down is holding true for now. Not so sure about the second part though. NMC are scarcer and arguably a better currency so some people may be jumping ship to NMC for good.


Tue Jul 05, 2011 3:51 pm
Profile

Posts: 15
Reply with quote
Post Re: Reminder: NMC prices depend on BTC prices
JohnDoe wrote:
Anth0n wrote:
Since BTC prices are falling, I've bought a whole bunch of NMC expecting them to rise. So when BTC starts rising again, that might be a good time to consider selling some. Thoughts?


Looks like NMC going up when BTC goes down is holding true for now. Not so sure about the second part though. NMC are scarcer and arguably a better currency so some people may be jumping ship to NMC for good.


Namecoins are absolutely a better currency in theory, since they possess a fundamental usage that help to make them valuable. But lack of publicity makes it risky to trade, however they can potentially be extremely profitable. The risk is why it is strategically advantageous to sell some NMC when BTC price starts to rise, since NMC prices should fall. I would rather advocate a sound trading strategy than sound like a pumper.


Tue Jul 05, 2011 5:34 pm
Profile

Posts: 34
os: linux
Reply with quote
Post Re: Reminder: NMC prices depend on BTC prices
Anth0n wrote:
JohnDoe wrote:
Anth0n wrote:
Since BTC prices are falling, I've bought a whole bunch of NMC expecting them to rise. So when BTC starts rising again, that might be a good time to consider selling some. Thoughts?


Looks like NMC going up when BTC goes down is holding true for now. Not so sure about the second part though. NMC are scarcer and arguably a better currency so some people may be jumping ship to NMC for good.


Namecoins are absolutely a better currency in theory, since they possess a fundamental usage that help to make them valuable. But lack of publicity makes it risky to trade, however they can potentially be extremely profitable. The risk is why it is strategically advantageous to sell some NMC when BTC price starts to rise, since NMC prices should fall. I would rather advocate a sound trading strategy than sound like a pumper.


Maybe this is just a preferential strategy but why would you sell when you're expecting the price to go down? Wouldn't you want to buy into weakness and sell into strength (i.e. buy low, sell high)? Your strategy seems contrarian in that you are selling when the price goes down (sell low) and buy when the price goes up (buy high).

It may just be me but what I expect to happen in the difficulty adjustment at block 16128 is an initial sell-off to the difficulty equilibrium. Then if no one wants to buy namecoins at those prices or sell them then the market stays at those rates and miner leave to go back to BTC. Or after the sell off because there is no point in profiting the sellers hold until the price goes back to where it was or even higher. Keep in mind the ration after a 4 times increase of 22300 will be around 90,000 and given the difficulty ratio of NMC to BTC that puts the ratio to mine them at 0.0556 or so. So you can count on the mining ratio to increase. If the market value on the exchange does not go up with the difficulty you will see a huge buying of NMC up until 0.0556 and past it a bit because it would be cheaper to buy them than to mine them at that point.

But anyways I expect volatility nontheless given that 2016 blocks = 100800 NMC will be added to the total NMC in a few days time which is more than 10% of the current total NMC out there.


Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:51 am
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 4 posts ] 

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.